I will have to respectfully disagree on that one. The vorici recipe is noticeably more expensive than the expected average. This means, if you are consistently using it, you're losing resources in the long run. On the other hand, if you only self-link, you will have some bad luck streaks, but you'll have lucky 6-links too to compensate. In the long run, you're going to be better off. Trying to beat the house is indeed stupid, but the house always has the odds stacked in its favor. This is not the case with Vorici vs. self-link.
That being said, buying your six-links is typically the most cost-effective approach. The prices of six-links in a well-saturated market (about 2 weeks into a new league) are typically slightly lower than 1200 fusings + the cost of the chest itself. They usually go around 1000 fusings + chest price. And, best of all, there's no risk involved for the gambling averse folks out there.
It's not, you're just bad at this game. The average has been stated and discerned by Chris and lots of players, respectively. ~1200 is the number. Chris has said it falls a bit under Vorici.
Since you need a 6L every league, that means statistically, you'll likely go an entire one without one. Or break yourself trying to get it. Only to save in other leagues, which who cares. If you budget 6ex every league and use Vorici, you'll know exactly what to expect. No rollercoaster rides. Yeah, you'll be out an exalt every league, but if that's important to you, then you're playing this game wrong.
As for buying your 6L, you likely don't care about the rolls. Because godly rolled 6L are more expensive than if you bought the item and used Vorici... or about the same. So yeah, you're bad at this game.
I mean you're actually defending gambling and that it's the better way to go lol. I can see things like reliquary keys. Ok, for 70c, you could get a 500ex chest. Or a 5ex flask. Sure. I think it's dumb too, but I can see it because the rewards are there. But for 6L? So the odds always win. And if you 6L on the first fuse, you've won that fight, but since it's never ending (you don't stop at one 6L), you know it'll catch up with you. That's the crazy part. People think they'll forever 6L on 300 fuses... like what even. That's why people who manually link are bad. Like I said, the numbers are there. Now if the average to 6L was half, then it'd be worth it. But for 300 fuses... naw. Check trade, it's like 330 fuses for an exalt now. Nothing. Like I said, I had enough for Vorici in about a week of playing. I had the fuses before I even hit Vorici level 7. And I suck at trade and clear like a slug compared to most people.
I've had a league with 3k+ fusings without six-link at my first attempt, in HC. Still managed to deal with it. Had a 6-link Disfavour, 6-link regalia and 6-link Shavs by the end of it. Sold the Shavs, gave the Disfavor and Regalia away when I quit the league.
I can see how having a bad luck streak can ruin your league if you're a bad player though. *shrug*
You have to be realistic about these things.
Logen Ninefingers
Последняя редакция: Bars#2689. Время: 10 апр. 2017 г., 06:17:39
I will have to respectfully disagree on that one. The vorici recipe is noticeably more expensive than the expected average. This means, if you are consistently using it, you're losing resources in the long run. On the other hand, if you only self-link, you will have some bad luck streaks, but you'll have lucky 6-links too to compensate. In the long run, you're going to be better off. Trying to beat the house is indeed stupid, but the house always has the odds stacked in its favor. This is not the case with Vorici vs. self-link.
That being said, buying your six-links is typically the most cost-effective approach. The prices of six-links in a well-saturated market (about 2 weeks into a new league) are typically slightly lower than 1200 fusings + the cost of the chest itself. They usually go around 1000 fusings + chest price. And, best of all, there's no risk involved for the gambling averse folks out there.
It's not, you're just bad at this game. The average has been stated and discerned by Chris and lots of players, respectively. ~1200 is the number. Chris has said it falls a bit under Vorici.
Since you need a 6L every league, that means statistically, you'll likely go an entire one without one. Or break yourself trying to get it. Only to save in other leagues, which who cares. If you budget 6ex every league and use Vorici, you'll know exactly what to expect. No rollercoaster rides. Yeah, you'll be out an exalt every league, but if that's important to you, then you're playing this game wrong.
As for buying your 6L, you likely don't care about the rolls. Because godly rolled 6L are more expensive than if you bought the item and used Vorici... or about the same. So yeah, you're bad at this game.
I mean you're actually defending gambling and that it's the better way to go lol. I can see things like reliquary keys. Ok, for 70c, you could get a 500ex chest. Or a 5ex flask. Sure. I think it's dumb too, but I can see it because the rewards are there. But for 6L? So the odds always win. And if you 6L on the first fuse, you've won that fight, but since it's never ending (you don't stop at one 6L), you know it'll catch up with you. That's the crazy part. People think they'll forever 6L on 300 fuses... like what even. That's why people who manually link are bad. Like I said, the numbers are there. Now if the average to 6L was half, then it'd be worth it. But for 300 fuses... naw. Check trade, it's like 330 fuses for an exalt now. Nothing. Like I said, I had enough for Vorici in about a week of playing. I had the fuses before I even hit Vorici level 7. And I suck at trade and clear like a slug compared to most people.
I've had a league with 3k+ fusings without six-link at my first attempt, in HC. Still managed to deal with it. Had a 6-link Disfavour, 6-link regalia and 6-link Shavs by the end of it. Sold the Shavs, gave the Disfavor and Regalia away when I quit the league.
I can see how having a bad luck streak can ruin your league if you're a bad player though. *shrug*
There you go. You were down about 6ex. Nice job. By manually linking, over time, you save 1ex per item. That's all. And you're bound to RNG, which means you may go a long time one league without one. You're not going to successfully 6L on 400 fuses indefinitely. I have 6L on the first. I've done it on 25. I've gone on runs 6Ling in 300-400. And I've hit dry spells. Nothing as crazy as 3k+, but definitely 2k. And then I woke up.
You play how you want, but numbers don't lie. There's nothing attractive about a gamble to save 300 fuses. That's just a retarded bet. And the only way to use self linking is if you do it in bulk, and you may still get burned.
Let's say you do nothing but flip fuses and do nothing but 6L and flip the items. Statistically you'd be generating about an ex per piece, but that's over the course of time. So sometimes you'll get lucky and make 4ex on an item because it took you 300 fuses. Others will eat away at that profit because it took 2500 to get the job done. But if you mapped it out, say out of 100 6L, yeah, you'd be making about a 300 fuse profit. Maybe, depends on the market and the item as you never really get back what you put into something. And you'll have to get the items so 6L so you're already invested even before you make profit.
If that's what you're doing, sure, go manually 6L. But if you just 6L a handful of items a league, it's not worth. It's not worth because of RNGs instability, as you yourself have found out by burning yourself that one league.
Trying to manually 6-link is in my opinion only worth it if your base type is a cheap unique. This way you can stop at a 5-link and sell it. You will still lose some money in the long run, but most of the time you will get some currency back that was spend into crafting. This currency can be used to buy another base and repeat the process.
But if my base is expensive or a decent rare and i really want the 6-link, i would just pay vorici.
Edit: But on the other hand: if the base is cheap, the 6-link might also be not that expensive, e.g. Belly of the beast. So buying already 6-linked is the best bet in this case
Последняя редакция: Sollkomol#0963. Время: 11 апр. 2017 г., 02:21:40
It's not, you're just bad at this game. The average has been stated and discerned by Chris and lots of players, respectively. ~1200 is the number. Chris has said it falls a bit under Vorici.
Since you need a 6L every league, that means statistically, you'll likely go an entire one without one. Or break yourself trying to get it. Only to save in other leagues, which who cares. If you budget 6ex every league and use Vorici, you'll know exactly what to expect. No rollercoaster rides. Yeah, you'll be out an exalt every league, but if that's important to you, then you're playing this game wrong.
As for buying your 6L, you likely don't care about the rolls. Because godly rolled 6L are more expensive than if you bought the item and used Vorici... or about the same. So yeah, you're bad at this game.
I mean you're actually defending gambling and that it's the better way to go lol. I can see things like reliquary keys. Ok, for 70c, you could get a 500ex chest. Or a 5ex flask. Sure. I think it's dumb too, but I can see it because the rewards are there. But for 6L? So the odds always win. And if you 6L on the first fuse, you've won that fight, but since it's never ending (you don't stop at one 6L), you know it'll catch up with you. That's the crazy part. People think they'll forever 6L on 300 fuses... like what even. That's why people who manually link are bad. Like I said, the numbers are there. Now if the average to 6L was half, then it'd be worth it. But for 300 fuses... naw. Check trade, it's like 330 fuses for an exalt now. Nothing. Like I said, I had enough for Vorici in about a week of playing. I had the fuses before I even hit Vorici level 7. And I suck at trade and clear like a slug compared to most people.
I've had a league with 3k+ fusings without six-link at my first attempt, in HC. Still managed to deal with it. Had a 6-link Disfavour, 6-link regalia and 6-link Shavs by the end of it. Sold the Shavs, gave the Disfavor and Regalia away when I quit the league.
I can see how having a bad luck streak can ruin your league if you're a bad player though. *shrug*
There you go. You were down about 6ex. Nice job. By manually linking, over time, you save 1ex per item. That's all. And you're bound to RNG, which means you may go a long time one league without one. You're not going to successfully 6L on 400 fuses indefinitely. I have 6L on the first. I've done it on 25. I've gone on runs 6Ling in 300-400. And I've hit dry spells. Nothing as crazy as 3k+, but definitely 2k. And then I woke up.
You play how you want, but numbers don't lie. There's nothing attractive about a gamble to save 300 fuses. That's just a retarded bet. And the only way to use self linking is if you do it in bulk, and you may still get burned.
Let's say you do nothing but flip fuses and do nothing but 6L and flip the items. Statistically you'd be generating about an ex per piece, but that's over the course of time. So sometimes you'll get lucky and make 4ex on an item because it took you 300 fuses. Others will eat away at that profit because it took 2500 to get the job done. But if you mapped it out, say out of 100 6L, yeah, you'd be making about a 300 fuse profit. Maybe, depends on the market and the item as you never really get back what you put into something. And you'll have to get the items so 6L so you're already invested even before you make profit.
If that's what you're doing, sure, go manually 6L. But if you just 6L a handful of items a league, it's not worth. It's not worth because of RNGs instability, as you yourself have found out by burning yourself that one league.
Your selective understanding and interpretation skills are impressive. On the contrary, there's something very attractive about saving 300 fuses (on average) at the cost of increased risk per single attempt. It's the way to go if you generate enough resources per league, and I generate enough resources per league if I play it in any type of serious fashion.
I did not find out it was not worth it - I found out I can deal with the bad luck streaks, no problem.
PoE crafting works like poker. If the pot odds are in your favor, you go for it, even if it's risky. There will be guaranteed payoff in the long term. Simple as that. In poker too there are people who ignore some long-term mathematical certainties and then they wonder how some players are consistently positive, while they aren't themselves.
Must be luck, right? Nope.
There's absolutely no luck in PoE if you play it properly. Some players are rich on week 2 of every new league, without fail - and without flipping or playing the market. They don't use the Vorici recipe. Take it as you will. I'm out of this pointless argument.
You have to be realistic about these things.
Logen Ninefingers
Here you go champ, from today's Q/A. Have fun staying forever a dummy.
"
Why is the Six Linked Sockets fusing orb requirement on Artisan bench so unfairly high? Will this requirement get lowered anytime soon?
I'm sorry that you feel it is unfair, but it was actually set at a rate where there's no penalty for using it compared to the expected number of Orbs of Fusing required to roll the item by hand. It's high because that's how rare six-linked items are.
PS: I underlined the important stuff cause you seem sorta slow... eh.
My and my friends' records from hundreds of six-links suggest a noticeably lower average. Perhaps this is without quality, or it's not entirely true? I don't know.
Anyway, as I said, I'm not interested in pointless arguments, and I'm even less interested in exchanging insults. Knock yourself out only doing vorici recipe.
You have to be realistic about these things.
Logen Ninefingers
I used to link items for profit in the past, when prices were different. And may assure you that Vorici is a scam and should be used only if crafting irregularly. In the long run regular manual crafting evens the odds at around 800-1000 for 6L, 80-100 for 5L.
That's according to my personal experience and actual numbers may vary, or may get changed over time, but the principle is there. Vorici sells all of his services at around 30% above the average.
