Socket Chances Revealed!

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phrazz написал:
I always heard rumors that higher the ilevel = higher chance of 6s. That is just rumors, then?


That chest that took me 600 Jeweler's Orbs is item level 80:



So unless I am not only unlucky, but extremely unlucky (which is entirely possible!), item level doesn't figure in. I even used scraps for quite a few of the tries. Still trying to link it.
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Jennik написал:
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syrioforel написал:
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Malone написал:
it means 300 jewellers in average to get 6S ? weird, I think it was easier than that...


300 on average means most people get it in roughly <= 200.


I don't even know how to respond to this.


I lol'd... That HAS to be the sweetest quote ever.
Bring me some coffee and I'll bring you a smile.
"
jaiinus написал:
6 sockets: 0.33%

Sadly he won't tell us the chances for fusing :(


rounding 6L chance to two digits gives 0.00% !
few years/months ago, in the forum, an user said it may be around 1/1200 for 6L and a dev answered "it's even inferior to that"...

It would be nice if item had a "memory" : the more you fuse it, the bigger is the chance to link it... This way, you would never spend 6k fusing getting nothing. Maybe your item would not be 6L at this step, but at least you have in mind that every fusing spent so far make you closer to the goal.

If basic chance to 6L is 0.05 %, and every 100 fusing increase your chance by 0.01 %,

After 2k fusing you have 0.25 % chance to 6L it
After 4k fusing you have 0.45 % chance to 6L it
After 10k fusing you have around 1 % chance to 6L it

Not a big deal, but well, it is more acceptable.
IGN TylordRampage
Последняя редакция: Malone#6946. Время: 23 мая 2014 г., 07:23:46
As someone mentioned on Reddit, that 0.33% doesn't mean you get 6s using in average 300 (303, 306) jewellers.

Jeweller orb not being able to roll the same number of sockets twice in a row matters.

I ran a simulation to get real numbers. Number of "jewellers used": 100 million. Here are the results:

Percentage:

1 sockets: 30,192223%
2 sockets: 28,497462%
3 sockets: 26,504156%
4 sockets: 12,149895%
5 sockets: 2,207363%
6 sockets: 0,448902%

Fraction:

1 sockets: 1/3,312111
2 sockets: 1/3,509084
3 sockets: 1/3,772993
4 sockets: 1/8,230524
5 sockets: 1/45,302925
6 sockets: 1/222,765773

An average amount of jewellers needed to get 6s is 223.

script used
This is PL/SQL. Something to keep Exadata at work busy :)

set serveroutput on
declare
type t_array is varray(7) of number;
v_tickets t_array := t_array(100, 90, 80, 30, 5, 1, 0);
v_total_tickets number := 100 + 90 + 80 + 30 + 5 + 1;
v_result_socket_count t_array := t_array(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0);
v_current_sockets number := 6;
v_next_sockets number;
v_rngesus_blessing number;
v_i number := 0;
begin
loop
v_rngesus_blessing := trunc(dbms_random.value() * (v_total_tickets - v_tickets(v_current_sockets)))+1;
v_next_sockets := 1;
if v_next_sockets = v_current_sockets then
v_next_sockets := v_next_sockets + 1;
end if;
while v_rngesus_blessing > v_tickets(v_next_sockets) loop
if v_next_sockets != v_current_sockets then
v_rngesus_blessing := v_rngesus_blessing - v_tickets(v_next_sockets);
v_next_sockets := v_next_sockets + 1;
if v_next_sockets = v_current_sockets then
v_next_sockets := v_next_sockets + 1;
end if;
end if;
end loop;
if v_current_sockets != 6 then
v_result_socket_count(v_next_sockets) := v_result_socket_count(v_next_sockets) + 1;
v_i := v_i + 1;
end if;
v_current_sockets := v_next_sockets;
exit when v_i > 100000000;
end loop;
for i in 1..6 loop
dbms_output.put_line(i || ' sockets: 1/' || v_i / v_result_socket_count(i));
end loop;
for i in 1..6 loop
dbms_output.put_line(i || ' sockets: ' || v_result_socket_count(i) / v_i * 100 || '%');
end loop;
end;

Edit: fixed a minor bug in the script. Values are slightly more accurate now.
Последняя редакция: SunnyRay#1519. Время: 23 мая 2014 г., 08:45:02
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Alea написал:
you take 300 people with 1 chest and 1 jeweler; arround 1 will get it 6 socketed.

what you think about that ? :>>

I think that it's wrong.
Around 1.35 people will get it 6 socketed.
These 300 people have chests with 1-5 sockets. The chance to 6s those chests with 1 jeweller is different: it's 1:301 for initial 5s, but 1:206 for initial 1s.

Edit: why the hell do I keep calling jeweller orb "fusing"?!
Последняя редакция: SunnyRay#1519. Время: 23 мая 2014 г., 08:46:59
let's see:

True chances:

1 socket: 0,320026869
2 sockets: 0,292053259
3 sockets: 0,262860658
4 sockets: 0,103355992
5 sockets: 0,01749108
6 sockets: 0,004212143


This is because the chance for socketing is dependent on how many sockets you already have.

There's a list already in the reddit thread about the chances per slots, but I went one step further and calculated the averages to find out the true chance for socketing.
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Idioticus написал:
let's see:

True chances:

1 socket: 0,320026869
2 sockets: 0,292053259
3 sockets: 0,262860658
4 sockets: 0,103355992
5 sockets: 0,01749108
6 sockets: 0,004212143


This is because the chance for socketing is dependent on how many sockets you already have.

There's a list already in the reddit thread about the chances per slots, but I went one step further and calculated the averages to find out the true chance for socketing.


citation / quote required
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aldorus написал:
"
Idioticus написал:
let's see:

True chances:

1 socket: 0,320026869
2 sockets: 0,292053259
3 sockets: 0,262860658
4 sockets: 0,103355992
5 sockets: 0,01749108
6 sockets: 0,004212143


This is because the chance for socketing is dependent on how many sockets you already have.

There's a list already in the reddit thread about the chances per slots, but I went one step further and calculated the averages to find out the true chance for socketing.


citation / quote required


it's true, you can't roll the same socket combination that's already on an item and you can't have 0 sockets. That skews the results. Chris's comment was just the pure chance of each number without factoring in the real life "rolling" scenario.

This is why even though the "technical" average jeweler value is 300 per 6s the real number is actually a bit lower. It's actually quite rare to use 300 jewelers without seeing a 6S.
IGN: OldManBalls (Warbands)
Последняя редакция: demivion#2965. Время: 23 мая 2014 г., 09:10:48
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aldorus написал:
citation / quote required

I guess it's

"
gunsforfun on Reddid wrote:

If someone wanted to throw together a quick script to run this as a simulation they could produce the "true" chances of getting 6 socket and then they could run the simulation with 1% chance of 6 socket after every 1 socket (to simulation 20% quality when it has the highest impact) and let us know the real world impact of quality'ing the item.

EDIT: Here's the spreadsheet as a .csv, and I also am assuming in this post that GGG is following standard statistics on this and they haven't hard coded the 5 and/or 6 socket chances to be static and adjusted the 1/2/3/4 socket to make up for the missing cases.

"Ending # Sockets","Probabilities from Chris",,"Starting 1 Socket Item","Starting 2 Socket Item","Starting 3 Socket Item","Starting 4 Socket Item","Starting 5 Socket Item"

1,32.68%,,46.30%,44.25%,36.23%,33.22%

2,29.41%,43.69%,,39.82%,32.61%,29.90%

3,26.14%,38.84%,37.04%,,28.98%,26.58%

4,9.80%,14.56%,13.88%,13.27%,,9.96%

5,1.63%,2.42%,2.31%,2.21%,1.81%,

6,0.33%,0.49%,0.47%,0.45%,0.37%,0.34%

Same values in human-friendly table

I've made my simulation because of this post (but it's not the simulation suggested in it :) ).

Still believe values I've posted earlier (223 jewellers for 6s) are more accurate than any other xD
Последняя редакция: SunnyRay#1519. Время: 23 мая 2014 г., 09:15:11

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