Boosting lich spawn rate is pointless.
" Doubling their spawn rate does not mean you will see twice as many lich unless their original rate is 50% (it's not). Again, nothing was said about guaranteeing anything. Chance means chance. Increasing depths rate means higher rate in appearance because nothin was wrong with lich spawns to begin with. You are arguing that Lich spawn rate was broken and it wasn't. I actually have the experience of hardcore grinding maps specifically for Depths. I've had hundreds of maps with potential spawns that just gave troves. For example, yesterday I ran (give or take a few/excluding Zana missions) ~100 maps I'd say around 50 of them had potential but I only saw 5 depths and had one lich. This is exactly the same rate I saw before patch. Again, nothing was said about any doubling guaranteed. |
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You're making my head hurt. Stop it.
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" I'll quote Bleu42 here: "That is so absolutely incorrect I'm inclined to believe you're just joking around." " While chance does not mean guaranteed outcome, in the long run doubling the chance of any outcome (for example lich spawn) will double the amount of liches you encounter. It's irrelevant whether the starting chance was 1% or 0,00001% as long as the undoubled chance was below 50% (since a chance of more than 100% would not have any noticeable result). You can easily test it yourself. Take one die (regular d6). The chance of throwing a 3 is 1/6. Throw the die 100 times, noting how many 3s (and if you want all other throws as well) you get. The amount will be around 16 (provided the die is hasn't been messed with, its a novelty die or something weird) 3s (and 4s and 5s and so on). The theoretical number of 3s is 16,666666... and the more throws you make the closer the result will be to that. Now take 2 dice. The chance of at least ONE 3 is: 2 · 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3 - so even though the chance of a 3 was NOT 50%, doubling the chance of rolling at least one 3 by adding another die will double the amount of 3s you'll find. You can test this again with just rolling the 2 dice 100 times. You'll get at least one 3 about 33 times (and again, the same for 4s, 5s and so on) " I'm not. I'm arguing that under the circumstances of not all areas being able to actually have a Depth, the lich spawn rate was too low and that was why they increased it. " That's a lot of guessing here and the sample size is quite low (5 depths) - you can't draw any conclusions from that (and to me (1 lich so far) a rate of 1/5 seems quite high, I wasn't as lucky - but what I said about your guesstimate above is also true for mine... sample size is too low to draw any conclusions; if you throw your die only 10 times, you won't get 3 of each number, you might not get, say, a 1 at all, which of course does not mean that the chance to get a 1 is 0). I'm not saying, neither, that increasing the probability of an area spawning a Depth would not help at all. It's probably just not as effective or easy to adjust because of the bug, since this will prevent a Depth from spawning EVEN THOUGH the "die" rolled "Depth". On the other hand, when you double the rate of Liches spawning, you roll the die whenever a Depth spawns (and perhaps even when it is prevented from spawning, but that's irrelevant) so it directly influences how many liches you will encounter. If the chance before the patch was 1 in 100 Depths, it's now 2(,25) in 100 - that's still no guarantee (far from it). And if the chance was 6 in 100 it's now 13,5 in 100 - which is still no guarantee and if you're unlucky you'll still go a long time without any liches. Bird lover of Wraeclast
Las estrellas te iluminan - Hoy te sirven de guía Te sientes tan fuerte que piensas - que nadie te puede tocar |
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Dice. grab 3 die. Each dice represents an abyssal crack. Rolling a 3 would spawn a depths. The most cracks I've had in a map I believe was 4.
" that would make the chance of rolling one 3. Only assuming the number of chances you roll are doubled. So now while you initially had 1/6 four times to roll a depths you would now receive 1/3 four times making 33% and more favorable outcome than 16% and since the problem was NOT LICH SPAWNS.. " but the spawns of Depths themselves the Liches still retain their respective rarity values whilst still increasing their chance of spawn. You must also include the factor of the large number of cracks that should've been but can't be Depths. So when the chance circumstances arise allowing a depths the chance of spawning should be increased. If The next three maps made were all capable with 3 cracks each and all of which were troves that gives a 0% outcome of lich. If only one of those were rolled depths there would be a 10% that one of those 9 spawn a lich. 1:9 is much better than 0:9 . doubling 0:9 is still 0:9. Последняя редакция: ScrappyJim#4357. Время: 28 янв. 2018 г., 16:23:27
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As I wrote before, they could have increased the chance of a Depth to appear, but it's harder to calculate with that because some Depths that should be created cannot be created.
When you increase the rate at which Liches can spawn, you directly increase the number of Liches, since those Depths that do appear now have a bigger chance to have a Lich. When you increase the rate at which Dephts can spawn and leave the chance of them spawning a Lich alone, you will also - indirectly - increase the number of Liches. But because of the bug and because there can only be 1 Depth per area, scaling Lich encounters by increasing the chance to get a Depths does not work the same way increasing the chance of a Depth having a Lich does. Coming back to the thread title - it is not pointless to increase the probability for Liches to spawn, it does exactly what it's meant to do i.e. increase the number of Lich encounters. It was not the only way to achieve this, sure. " Sure, if you build your argument on a false premise, then you're right. It's trivial to see that a high chance for a Lich in a Depth that does not exist does not do any good. However, the chance for a Depth is not 0, thus your argument is flawed. Bird lover of Wraeclast Las estrellas te iluminan - Hoy te sirven de guía Te sientes tan fuerte que piensas - que nadie te puede tocar Последняя редакция: Mikrotherion#4706. Время: 29 янв. 2018 г., 08:02:29
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" for someone that like maths, you seem to do alot of guessing, asume and project false information lol you need to relax you dont know the real values. Sure, if you build your argument on a false premise, then you're right. << all your claims are base on this lol Only a dumbass pays for a F2P game.
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" So please enlighten us (or me, if you were talking to me). I think I explained my thoughts over the last few pages. Bird lover of Wraeclast
Las estrellas te iluminan - Hoy te sirven de guía Te sientes tan fuerte que piensas - que nadie te puede tocar |
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So that's why I have had so many lich spawns. I rarely and i mean rarely get masters or trials to spawn in my maps. Zana I think is probably the rarest. I might only see her once or twice in a week. Dont really care though. Only thing that ever drops is the belt. The only item I've ever gotten than the belt is the helm.
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i have one lvl 91 and one lvl 92 charachter in abyss and today i finally found the echoing shrine. i never understood why a shrine you can use for 30 seconds is so rare.
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" Again you are putting words in my mouth. Nothing was said about the chance of depths being zero. Increasing the the chance of lich spawns does not increase the quantity because there is no guarantee one will spawn. Since I only played a few hours last night I ran 56 maps. Of those 56 38 could potentially spawn a depths but 6 had zero cracks. Out of those 38 I had 5 Depths and one lich spawn (wheres my double rate? it's the same as pre-patch). I also had 33 troves in maps without depths. I pretty positive that if more depths spawned I would've at least found 1 depth with a Lich within those 33. If the rate was increased even 100% on depths don't you think there would've been at least one lich? You're only going off theoretical numbers not counting on RNGs influence. After all RNG is RNG. yes only one Lich can spawn per map giving you only one chance per map for them but depths have multiple chances being one per crack. There'd be a better chance of receiving one depth per map or two than seeing a lich. " Much like your dice comparison. Before you roll that dice you better program it to statistically roll everything but 3 far more often or use weighted dice. If some maps can't spawn Depths it's better to give the ones that can spawn them a higher chance of it. Because that was the problem. Not Lich rate. Fill in the blank The better the chance of finding a Depths then the better the chance of finding a ____. Последняя редакция: ScrappyJim#4357. Время: 29 янв. 2018 г., 20:14:22
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